Institutional uncertainty of public policy actors. The Ukrainian case.

Abstract

In times of crisis, the quality of institutions, which are the basic construct of politics, is of particular importance for the functioning of state systems. They determine the sustainability and emergence of the political system, its ability to withstand external and internal challenges, and ensure the functioning of the state in specific regime conditions. Institutional uncertainty is the result of deformation of political and managerial practices caused by internal and external factors and implies situations where actors do not have a stable institutional structure and traditions of behavior, and do not find a compromise on political and behavioral procedures. The article attempts to identify the common causes of institutional uncertainty depending on the regime characteristics of political systems and, using Ukraine as an example, to analyze the factors that ensured the preservation of its sovereignty and functioning in the face of external aggression. In different political systems, institutions have different opportunities for access to power and influence on government decision-making. The quality of institutions is an important indicator of a political system. Regime characteristics can amplify or offset the effects of various factors that cause institutional uncertainty. The Ukrainian political system before the invasion of the Russian Federation demonstrated uneven quality of institutions: from low regulatory performance and corruption to positive changes related to reforms and the development of civil society. These changes allowed the system to remain functioning during the war and withstand external challenges. However, institutional "traps" that result from the system's internal operations and past traditions still affect the quality of institutions and the level of efficiency of the public policy model. These traps include the spontaneity and inconsistency of creating a new governance framework, which impedes the continuation of the movement towards full-fledged democracy. The war in Ukraine has introduced new challenges, including restrictions on the publicity of political processes and actors, which may lead to limited democracy in the future.